Four and a half years in as of Sept 2026. Up to 1.8 million combatant casualties by end-2025 (CSIS estimate). Civilian deaths and injuries rose every month of 2026 through July (HRMMU). On 6 Jan 2026 the 35-nation 'Coalition of the Willing' met in Paris; two days later Russia said Western troops in Ukraine would be 'legitimate targets'. US-led trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva (Jan-Feb 2026) stalled on territory; a three-day Victory Day truce (9-11 May 2026) was the only pause.
ICJ ordered Russia to stop in March 2022. In February 2026, 107 countries voted for a ceasefire.
In May, the only ceasefire anyone got lasted three days and was timed around a Moscow parade.
By August, more Ukrainian civilians had been killed and injured in 2026 than in all of 2025.
On 23 September 2026, fifty-one governments told the Security Council they were "deeply concerned". Lavrov, in the same room, said there would be no pause. Two weeks later a missile levelled an apartment block in Pryluky on Putin's birthday and a bomb hit two buses in Kramatorsk; the Council met again on 9 October and adopted nothing. On 11 October Trump declared an "energy ceasefire" that Kyiv had not heard of and Moscow did not confirm. A Kharkiv power plant was hit that evening.